Dubawi's TDN Rising Star Notable Speech Wins The Guineas

Saturday's G1 QIPCO 2000 Guineas went to an unbeaten colt with TDN Rising Star status, but instead of the bitterly disappointing City Of Troy (Justify) it was Godolphin's Notable Speech (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}–Swift Rose {Ire}, by Invincible Spirit {Ire}) who stepped up to conquer the Newmarket Classic. Sent off at 16-1 on his first start on turf, the Charlie Appleby-trained homebred who unusually had not raced at two and had only been to Kempton so far in his career, was kept sprung-loaded in last by a confident William Buick content to let it all play out ahead.

Strolling by Ballydoyle's already-struggling 4-6 favourite two out, he surged away from last year's G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere hero Rosallion (Ire) (Blue Point {Ire}) from the furlong pole to score by 1 1/2 lengths, with Rosallion's stablemate Haatem (Ire) (Phoenix Of Spain {Ire}) 1 3/4 lengths away in third. City Of Troy wound up ninth, making it back-to-back flops for a short-priced Ballydoyle favourite after Auguste Rodin (Ire) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) last year.

“I hadn't known him for that long–I only rode him in February but I haven't believed in a horse as much as this guy,” Buick said. “I kept going home thinking 'have I lost the plot altogether?' as he has an incredible change of gear and does things so easily. The race couldn't have worked out any better and I've gone close a couple of times in this, so it's nice to win it. He's an out-and-out miler and all about speed–he has a great mindset and is going to keep on improving as well.”

“City Of Troy was in trouble a long way out and I was conscious of not getting there too early with my horse, but I couldn't help it,” the winning rider added. “He just dragged me into the race in the hottest part of the race, which is what he did at Kempton in his previous runs, and then he's pricking his ears at the line–every time you ride him you always feel like there's more in the tank.”

The first colt of the modern era–actually the first since 1938–to win this without having raced at two, Notable Speech was able to take advantage of the thriving all-weather scene from Jan. 27 when he made a fast start to his career rattling off a final three-furlong flourish in :33.77. Back at Kempton for the Feb. 21 “European Road To The Kentucky Derby” Conditions S., he dispatched the subsequent listed winner Cuban Tiger (GB) (Havana Grey {GB}) with a dynamic penultimate split of :11.07 to instead put him on the Highway to a 2000 Guineas.

Like the bad luck that comes in threes, Notable Speech served his next warning to prospective rivals in the mile conditions race that used to hold listed status and be known as the Easter S. Apr. 6. As if the visual impression wasn't enough, the figures told the full story as he cut down his peers with a closing act of :10.81 and :10.98 to ensure he would take part in a Guineas of some sort. Charlie Appleby admitted in his post-race interview here that the Poule d'Essai des Poulains was the initial focus after that final Kempton appearance, but once the Newbury and Newmarket trials went by without fireworks the decision was cast to take on City Of Troy et al on home soil.

Buried early behind the five runners intent on keeping Ryan Moore at no more than arm's length, he was able to draft as Rosallion proved a touch buzzy before creeping up the wing three out with City Of Troy already unable to go with Haatem or Inisherin (GB) (Shamardal), who had also been ultra-impressive on the clock in his all-weather prep. Sean Levey must have thought the race was in safe keeping as he loomed up the centre two out on the smooth-travelling Rosallion, but that feeling lasted no more than a furlong as Buick uncoiled his Royal blue threat. Powerful to the line, Notable Speech brought up a foursome of 2000 Guineas winners for his sire, who 19 years previously had ironically joined the growing list of juvenile champions so sensationally downed in this.

“You don't see too many come off an all-weather success to a Guineas success and we've given him all the time he needed, thinking he was a good horse,” Appleby said. “He was still far too weak to do anything with last summer, but as always I'm in the very privileged position to be allowed to give the horses the time that they need with no pressure.”

“In that last start on the all-weather, he put a bit of a 'wow factor' into it with his acceleration and William did say at the time that he thought he was a French Guineas horse because he's so quick. We were waiting for the Craven to see how the Guineas picture would formulate and after that we decided to put him in the Guineas and brought him here for a racecourse gallop where he put that 'wow factor' back in.”

“I worked him with a good horse and told William I was going to put some speed into the dip and he needed to fire him into it and he flew in and out of it–Will said he didn't even know the dip was there,” he reflected. “We came here after that with confidence that we had the right horse to be here. All credit to Ady McCarthy who has ridden him throughout the winter. He hasn't been able to ride him for the last week or so, as he's gone to America with Nations Pride but Paul Eddery sat on him last week in a piece of work and said 'all I can say is if he gets a mile the favourite will have to be very good to beat him'. I wasn't saying he was going to win a Guineas off the back of what City Of Troy had done as a two-year-old, but I just felt we had the right horse to be competitive.”

There will be no Guineas-Derby double in 2024, with Appleby looking at Royal Ascot now. “I'd be surprised if we went beyond a mile and I'd imagine it will be the St James's Palace next, but as always we'll let the dust settle and let everyone enjoy themselves and speak to all connections,” he concluded.

Excuse For Troy?

Aidan O'Brien revealed afterwards that Ryan Moore had been unhappy with his mount in the starting gates prior to his deflating effort. “He got upset in the stalls, which he has never done before, then he jumped and Ryan just said the pace was on and he was in the middle of it and just flattened on his first run,” he said. “We'll see, it was unusual he got upset in the stalls because he was very happy before. He wasn't over-blowing. Obviously it's not his run and we'll see what happened and why it happened.”

“Everything was always straightforward with him, so we'll try to find out what happened and try to not let it happen again,” a shell-shocked O'Brien added. “We wouldn't have been here if we thought he was going to do that. We'll get him home and see. That's the way it is, we'll try and find out why and try not to let it happen again. Sorry about that, everyone.”

Bittersweet For Hannon…

Richard Hannon saddled the second and third, which as ever provides a level of delight and disappointment in equal measure. “Both my horses ran great races, I'm disappointed to get beaten but you can't be disappointed by how they ran,” he said. “Rosallion travelled so well and ran a huge race. I'm not going to lie, when I saw City Of Troy fading out of it I thought 'there's the main one gone'. It's probably one of the best Guineas there's been for 10 years and both of my horses have shown they're Group 1 horses–one has won a Group 1 and the other one will, so there's a lot to look forward to.”

Pedigree Notes

Notable Speech, who was becoming the second of Dubawi's 39 'TDN Rising Star's to win a Classic after the St Leger hero Eldar Eldarov (GB), is the first foal out of the G3 UAE Oaks runner-up Swift Rose. A daughter of the ill-fated Listed Prix Ceres winner and G3 Prix du Palais-Royal and G3 Prix de Meautry runner-up Tulips (Ire) (Pivotal {GB}), she is therefore a half-sister to Dubawi's G3 Burj Nahaar winner Desert Wisdom (GB) and to the GI Natalma S. and G3 Fred Darling S. scorer Wild Beauty (GB) (Frankel {GB}).

The fourth dam is the G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest and G1 Haydock Park Sprint Cup heroine Cherokee Rose (Ire) (Dancing Brave), responsible for Bowman (Irish River {Fr}) who was placed in his “Guineas” when third in the G1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains. This is also the family of the operation's G1 St Leger and G1 Hong Kong Vase winner Mastery (GB) (Sulamani {Ire}), the G1 Gran Criterium winner Kirklees (Ire) (Jade Robbery) and Invincible Spirit's G2 Challenge S.-winning sire Cable Bay (Ire). Swift Rose's second offering is a yearling daughter of Pinatubo (Ire).

Saturday, Newmarket, Britain
QIPCO 2000 GUINEAS S.-G1, £500,000, Newmarket, 5-4, 3yo, 8fT, 1:37.21, gd.
1–NOTABLE SPEECH (GB), 128, c, 3, by Dubawi (Ire)
                1st Dam: Swift Rose (Ire) (GSP-UAE, $135,326),
                                by Invincible Spirit (Ire)
                2nd Dam: Tulips (Ire), by Pivotal (GB)
                3rd Dam: Hint Of Spring (GB), by Seeking The Gold
   1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GROUP WIN, 1ST GROUP 1 WIN.
'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Godolphin (GB); T-Charlie Appleby;
J-William Buick. £283,550. Lifetime Record: 4-4-0-0, $419,150.
Werk Nick Rating: A+. Click for the
   eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree, or the
   free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Rosallion (Ire), 128, c, 3, Blue Point (Ire)–Rosaline (Ire), by
New Approach (Ire). O/B-Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al
Maktoum (IRE); T-Richard Hannon. £107,500.
3–Haatem (Ire), 128, c, 3, Phoenix Of Spain (Ire)–Hard Walnut
(Ire), by Cape Cross (Ire). 1ST GROUP 1 BLACK TYPE. (€28,000
RNA Wlg '21 GOFNO1; 27,000gns Ylg '22 TATOCT). O-Sheikh
Abdullah Almalek Alsabah; B-Hyde Park Stud (IRE); T-Richard
Hannon. £53,800.
Margins: 1HF, 1 3/4, 1 1/4. Odds: 16.00, 7.50, 16.00.
Also Ran: Ghostwriter (Ire), Alyanaabi (Ire), Inisherin (GB), Task Force (GB), Ten Bob Tony (Ire), City Of Troy, Night Raider (Ire), Iberian (Ire).

2000 Guineas Stakes (G1)
1.610 m – 500.000 GBP – for 3yo colts
Newmarket

Notable Speech (GB)
(Dubawi- Swift Rose , by Invincible Spirit)
J : William Buick
T :Charlie Appleby
O : @godolphin pic.twitter.com/qSFQlH2Eb3

— (@WorldRacing1) May 4, 2024